Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 5.479051 6.523098 7.678036 9.045655 10.615900 12.357252 14.429155
2025-03-02 3.608718 4.917939 6.532607 8.648335 11.322895 14.565017 18.762793
2025-03-09 2.614912 4.013563 5.908131 8.609604 12.301192 17.100580 23.730453
2025-03-16 1.933114 3.308370 5.335060 8.446526 12.989827 19.250493 28.367641
2025-03-23 1.612054 3.027747 5.267044 8.919629 14.544401 22.658576 34.967645
2025-03-30 1.304174 2.681286 5.012265 9.036578 15.544529 25.330091 40.726074
2025-04-06 1.055535 2.368595 4.739447 9.055724 16.356612 27.754057 46.280396
2025-04-13 0.857554 2.095950 4.475238 9.029353 17.060689 30.036696 51.761276
2025-04-20 0.784199 2.053281 4.614921 9.713992 19.000483 34.402778 60.771535
2025-04-27 0.679562 1.915785 4.545117 9.997531 20.262711 37.749983 68.372901
2025-05-04 0.600306 1.814968 4.527856 10.369580 21.704997 41.486821 76.835495
2025-05-11 0.503759 1.645075 4.333245 10.360264 22.435368 44.047933 83.489824
2025-05-18 0.400015 1.428712 4.003571 10.045297 22.588339 45.672621 88.780639
2025-05-25 0.309196 1.216697 3.639933 9.602787 22.444491 46.759312 93.233725
2025-06-01 0.255230 1.095287 3.469672 9.557665 23.085909 49.323039 100.459623
2025-06-08 0.205758 0.968493 3.256746 9.378404 23.422825 51.329817 106.795994
2025-06-15 0.188928 0.950150 3.331973 9.895154 25.287489 56.384255 119.017746
2025-06-22 0.162039 0.882959 3.254873 10.022795 26.308882 59.850875 128.455264
2025-06-29 0.136485 0.809546 3.142871 10.043665 27.089699 62.885891 137.238753
2025-07-06 0.113960 0.737982 3.019587 10.014843 27.749710 65.713845 145.772595
2025-07-13 0.110277 0.752556 3.175692 10.762383 30.288135 72.549236 162.444608
2025-07-20 0.098389 0.721439 3.173935 11.071773 31.809760 77.355485 175.352548
2025-07-27 0.089395 0.701041 3.204772 11.477575 33.598348 82.825498 189.837482